[svlug] Time to dump those yahoo accounts

[Christian Einfeldt]

hi

On Feb 1, 2008 12:14 PM, Andrew Fife <afife at untangle.com> wrote:

> AFAIK Yahoo hasn't announced whether or not they'll accept MSFT's offer.
> But given the companies recent performance and the 60% premium over what
> their stock was trading at, acceptance seems likely.
>

Yeah, acceptance seems likely, but looky how much ground Microsoft will have
to make up to catch Google:

 Rank  Search Engine  Volume   1.  www.google.com  65.98%   2.
search.yahoo.com  20.88%   3.  search.msn.com  5.33%   4.  www.ask.com
4.14%
http://www.hitwise.com/datacenter/searchengineanalysis.php

Note that msn searches have declined despite significant investment by the
borg in pumping up its performance.  There is strong reason to believe that
Microsoft will not be able to tie its Yahoo properties to its Microosft
Windows and Microsoft Office monopolies, and there is not a single one of
Microsoft's properties that have succeeded to drive significantly scaled
revenue unless it is tied to the Microsoft Windows and Microsoft Office
monopolies.  Halo was a huge seller, but them Microsoft sold off the Bungie,
the creator of Halo, on October 1, 2007 after milking the cow dry.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bungie_Studios

Microsoft took a $1 billion hit on the X-box:

http://www.news.com/Microsoft-to-extend-Xbox-360-warranty,-take-1-billion-hit/2100-1014_3-6195058.html

The X-box was wildy outsold by Wii.  MSNBC is popular but not a huge money
maker.  There is simply nothing outside the Microsoft Windows / Microsoft
Office monopoly that shows signs of supporting Microsoft's stock is down
6.35% at the moment on the day, despite the Yahoo announcement.  MSFT's
stock is trading at $30.51, meaning that it is right back down in the same
dolldrums where it has been since Q3 2003 , with no intervening splits!

There are lots of analysts talking about a glut of Vista machines, and
wondering if CompUSA's bk might be the canary in Microsoft's coal mine.
Microsoft's recent report of a 67% increase on its net reflects ADVANCE
SALES of Vista licenses which Microsoft imposes on its vendors.  If its
vendors are overstocked with Vista machines, you wonder how much more
Microsoft can cram down the pipeline in coming quarters.

In the meantime, Linux and Unix boxes have been selling very well on
Amazon.com and swept all the categories for Amazon for 2007:

http://linux.slashdot.org/linux/07/12/29/1959244.shtml

*"Computers and handheld devices running default GNU Linux or Unix OSes have
swept Amazon's 'best of' list for
2007<http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/index.jsp?epi_menuItemID=887566059a3aedb6efaaa9e27a808a0c&ndmViewId=news_view&ndmConfigId=1000017&newsId=20071228005057&newsLang=en>,
according BusinessWire.com for 28 December 2007. Best selling computer? The
Nokia Internet Tablet PC, running Linux. Best reviewed computer? The Apple
MacBook Pro notebook PC. Most wished for computer? Asus Eee 4G-Galaxy 7-inch
PC mobile Internet device, which comes with Xandros Linux pre-installed. And
last, but not least, the most frequently gifted computer: The Apple MacBook
notebook PC."*

Sure, the borg is powerful, but with this Yahoo acquisition, they are taking
on premium-weighted debt, and it really raises a question as to whether that
asset will justify the premium.  Yahoo has been declining, and it is not
clear that the mere acquisition of Yahoo by Microsoft will succeed where
Microsoft has failed in all of their other non-Windows-Office monopoly.
That is the $44 billion dollar question, IMHO.
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://lists.svlug.org/archives/svlug/attachments/20080201/e89c60d1/attachment.htm