[svlug] SJ Mercury: economic recovery may have already begun

Jeffrey Siegal jbs at quiotix.com
Mon Jan 13 10:55:53 PST 2003


Ian Kluft wrote:
> * People trying to buy industrial power strips for labs at work said they've
>   had a harder time getting a hold of salesmen - meaning others are buying
>   them too.  And they'd only do that if they had new big boxes to plug in.

Maybe, although it is also possible some of the salespeople have been 
laid off too...

> * Traffic (on the roads) has been increasing again.

Good indicator.

> * Actually, lots of people have been mentioning little bits of anecdotal
>   evidence of increased Tech economic activity for a couple months.

Yes, I've noticed that as well.

> Something that can't hurt... Of the equipment that was replaced all at
> once for Y2K, anything that accountants depreciate in 3 years finally
> is getting budgeted for replacement now.

FWIW, accounting-wise equipment is depreciated over 5 years, although 
many businesses replace it sooner than that.  It is true that much of 
the Y2K equipment is ready for replacement.  It is also true that a lot 
of the equipment that flooded the used market from dead dot coms is now 
becomming obsolete.

On the other hand, people seem to be keeping equipment longer now.

> One thing I remember from the recession in the early 90's (which lasted
> from 1989 to 1995 in Silicon Valley due to the earthquake, firestorm,
> aerospace industry bust, closure of all the military bases, a national
> recession and a Tech recession) was that it took time to broaden out.
> People didn't see the ups or downs at the same time.  Don't lose hope.

Good point.




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