[svlug] SJ Mercury: economic recovery may have already begun

Ian Kluft ikluft at thunder.sbay.org
Mon Jan 13 04:24:26 PST 2003


There's some good news on the front page of the Murky News today.

   "Indicators signal weak tech rebound"
   http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews/4933408.htm

After the last 2 years, we'll take any kind of rebound.

For those out there looking for work, I hope this helps you hold on to
some hope.  I know I've seen friends show various stages of depression
at times during job searches that went far longer than expected.  The
light at the end of the tunnel doesn't sound like another train this time.

We've been saying for a long time that when the day comes the economists say
in public they see a recovery, they'll be looking at averages and it'll
have actually been happenning for months.  Well, that day is apparently
today.

I had been hearing other hints for months...
* People trying to buy industrial power strips for labs at work said they've
  had a harder time getting a hold of salesmen - meaning others are buying
  them too.  And they'd only do that if they had new big boxes to plug in.
* Traffic (on the roads) has been increasing again.
* Actually, lots of people have been mentioning little bits of anecdotal
  evidence of increased Tech economic activity for a couple months.

Something that can't hurt... Of the equipment that was replaced all at
once for Y2K, anything that accountants depreciate in 3 years finally
is getting budgeted for replacement now.  We can expect that to have
an increasing boost on the economy through the course of this year as
we start bringing in more 4-year depreciated items too.  I don't know
what strength it'll give to a recovery.  But I don't believe a recession
can continue with that happenning.

One thing I remember from the recession in the early 90's (which lasted
from 1989 to 1995 in Silicon Valley due to the earthquake, firestorm,
aerospace industry bust, closure of all the military bases, a national
recession and a Tech recession) was that it took time to broaden out.
People didn't see the ups or downs at the same time.  Don't lose hope.



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