[svlug] It is all starting to make sense

[George Bonser]

On Tue, 10 Nov 1998, Javilk wrote:

>     Intel has three problems:
> 
>       1. Competitors are gaining on the Pentium, eroding profit margins. 
>          Solution: Merced. 
> 
>       2. Merced needs a popular operating system.  
>          Current Solution: MS Windows NT


huh? what about Solaris and HP-UX? 

> 
>       3. Merced needs applications software
>          Current solution: none. ZIP!

see above.

> 
>    Intel's greatest fear: 
>       
>       DOJ causes MS to focus away from porting Win-- and APPLICATIONS over
> to Merced.  Not stops, merely ties up management and delays rollout.
> 
>       With the delays, MANUFACTURERS perceive that no one wants Merced
> because there is nothing to run on it.  They don't ADVERTISE new Merced
> machines.  Meanwhile competitors continue to squeeze Intel's Pentium based
> profits.

Again, there are more operating systems lined up to run on merced than
there are on current intel chips. merced is going to kill NT since all
operatibg systems now run on the same hardware. nt has no gardware cost
advantage.


> 
>       Merced is the FUTURE. MS has to support it.

yeah, even if it kills them.

> 
> 
>      You may recall, SGI was pushing Indy's and O2's as major web servers.

anything sgi does at this point is moot ... unless they come out with a
$2000 Irix box.

>     MS could do serious damage to Intel by delaying support.  Intel would
> then set up a good emulator, but the damage to Intel would be in the
> perception that it is not "real". Intel's damage to MS, on the other hand,
> would be horrendous, as no one would buy new software!  If Intel does it
> right, they just run the old stuff in emulation mode.  (Common in the
> mainframe market...)

ok, so ... linux, solaris and hp-ux are available on merced and microsoft
"delays" support. hmmm. looks like it hurts microsoft more than intel to
me. Microsoft can't AFFORD to "delay" support. In the enterprise IT
market, Unix has been gaining market share at twice the rate of NT.


>     Intel is driven by investors, (as is MS,) and the major investments in
> design and fabrication required for Merced.  Intel does not "have" to
> support anything, it needs others support or Merced is dead as a door
> nail!

Well, they already HAVE support and from a lot of other people besides
Microsquish. The more likely scenario is that Microsoft asks Intel to
DELAY MERCED until NT is ready. With the new equity position in Red Hat,
Intel can not afford to delay Merced without impacting its own investments
in the OS market. Microsoft has gotten itself into a weak bargaining
position for delaying Merced.

> fabrication equipment, neither will want to delay the other.  They both
> want fast roll out, and fast profits. 

Again, Solaris, Linux, HP-UX and to a lesser extent, SGI. SGI is putting
itself in a bad position by making its Merced-based hardware platform
different than anyone else. HP-UX is screwing up with the endian thing.
The real winners on the Merced platform will be Solaris and Linux. Still,
IT management will have real choices on the same hardware platforms.

>     I doubt it.  BUT... If Linux supports Merced before Win--, if Merced
> starts rolling out before Win-- is ready, Linux wins big, and MS gets hit
> hard!  (Actually, it does not matter if Win/Merced is buggy as all heck,
> since by the time Compaq et all ship hardware, the updates will be out.) 

Exactly my point. If you buy a Merced box for $5000 and have a choice of
several operating systems for it, why are you going to choose NT?  NT has
no price advantage over Solaris as far as the software goes ... its only
advantage has been the hardware. A PCI ethernet card is a lot less than an
SBus ethernet card. Sun learned that lesson and that is why they are
producing the Ultra-5/10/60. PCI bus, SVGA monitor, etc. NT will have to
be better since it is no longer a cheaper solution.

What will keep Microsoft alive?  Transmeta? 


George Bonser

The Linux "We're never going out of business" sale at an FTP site near you!


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