[svlug] Linux's "equivalent gross revenue"

[Seth David Schoen]

Marc MERLIN writes:

> On 3 Aug 1998 13:12:25 -0700, Seth David Schoen <schoen at uclink4.berkeley.edu> wrote:
> >John Conover writes:
> >
> >> I was just kicking around with some of Linux's market numbers. RH
> >> claims that there are 7 million users of Linux, (and rightly qualifies
> >> the claim as only an estimate since it is impossible to know,
> >> precisely.)  Also, it is claimed that about half of these are new
> >> installations within the last calendar year.
> >
> >RedHat's estimates are always ridiculously low, because they count only
> >people who buy a CD.  The official estimates count only people who buy a
> 
> I haven't  found the  page where  they explain  how they  came up  with that
> estimate, but I think it tries to  be more accurate than what you think, and
> definitely takes into account people who copy linux and/or buy one CD and do
> 100 installs.

I disagree (although Harald Alvestrand's estimate is consistent with RedHat's,
and the percentage of Linux installations obtained free is dropping as RedHat's
popularity is rising).

I'd note (as I might have mentioned) that my LUG is burning a CD and sending
it to a student in Hungary who said he had no access to Linux.  This exchange
(which will also make Linux available to all of his friends) will never show
up on any list or any assessment of "sales" or "shipments", but it will expand
Linux mindshare in the world.

http://www.redhat.com/redhat/linuxmarket.html

   One of the great mysteries of Linux usage is that there is no way to
   know the number of Linux users who download the product by anonymous
   FTP. These users range from students and users in developing countries
   whose primary interest in Linux is its low cost to advanced
   engineering groups who prefer to download these tools to guarantee
   that they are using the very latest versions of all the tools and
   utilities.

   ...

   Total number of UNIX users using Linux plus the number of users
   represented by the ratio of non-UNIX users among Red Hat Software's
   customer base.

     Low estimates: 1,742,000 + 2,613,000 = 4,355,000
     High estimates: 3,015,000 + 7,035,000 = 10,050,000

   These numbers of course do not include the users who have downloaded
   Linux at no cost, and the Linux users in countries and markets with
   whom we do not currently have much contact.

-- 
   Seth David Schoen L&S '01 (undeclared) / schoen at uclink4.berkeley.edu
Magna dis immortalibus habenda est atque huic ipsi Iovi Statori, antiquissimo
custodi huius urbis, gratia, quod hanc tam taetram, tam horribilem tamque
infestam rei publicae pestem totiens iam effugimus.  -- Cicero, in Catilinam I

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